Latest news with #housing supply
Irish Times
15-07-2025
- Business
- Irish Times
No major uptick in housing supply this year or next, ESRI warns
There will be no major uptick in housing supply this year or in 2026 with Government targets set to be missed over both periods, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has told and Oireachtas committee. Officials from the ESRI, appearing before the committee on budgetary oversight on Tuesday, said a tight labour force in the sector and low productivity levels – particularly among small and domestic-owned construction firms – mean the outlook for housing remains bleak. Conor O'Toole, associate research professor with the ESRI, said these factors, coupled with the out-turn for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, mean the group does 'not foresee any major uptick in 2025 and 2026 in housing supply'. He said the ESRI is currently forecasting 33,000 units in 2025 and 37,000 units in 2026, which would be well below Government targets of 41,000 this year and 43,000 next year. Furthermore, Mr O'Toole added most of the risks 'weigh on the downside'. READ MORE On energy, Mr O'Toole pointed out that while prices have declined since outset of the war in Ukraine, Irish prices 'remain at high levels'. 'Prices for electricity in particular have not yet declined to the same extent as other EU countries,' he said. 'It is challenging to confidently identify the reasons for this, but prices are still largely driven by gas prices, and Ireland has not diversified away from using gas to generate electricity to the same extent as other EU countries.' The ESRI has revised its growth forecast downwards due to international developments, he said. Its forecast for growth in modified domestic demand (MDD) was 3 per cent in its Spring Quarterly Economic Commentary, but this is now 2.3 per cent. For 2026, the ESRI has adopted a 'technical assumption' that tariffs settle at moderate levels, in line with the IMF forecasts. This would lead to a possible growth rate in MDD of 2.8 per cent. Under the 10 per cent tariff scenario, the results show a negative impact on Irish GDP of up to 2 per cent and on MDD of 1.5 per cent over a period of five to seven years. Under a more severe 25 per cent tariff scenario, the negative impact on GDP is 3.5 per cent, while MDD is projected to decline by 3 per cent. Mr O'Toole said that while Ireland has limited direct influence over EU-US trade policy, there is a need for 'strong domestic policy responses'. On the 'outsized contribution' of corporate tax revenues, he warned recent government surpluses 'would have been substantial deficits' without windfall corporation tax revenues that are concentrated in a small number of taxpayers. 'While the establishment of the investment funds is extremely welcome, increasing the level of throughput from windfall payments to the funds would be advisable,' he added.
Daily Telegraph
11-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Telegraph
Aussie cities where rents are up to $17k a year higher than in 2020
Australia's rental crisis could be even worse than previously thought, with alarming figures revealing rents have climbed by more than three times the rises in the average Aussie's pay over the last five years. The PropTrack data laid just how much of a struggle it has been for tenants to keep up, with nationwide rents rising by $10,920 annually since June 2020. In the capitals, rents rose by $11,180 a year on average. Meanwhile, the average Aussie's pay has only gone up by about $3,000 in that time, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. And that's full-time earnings, not taking into account the wide range of people working part-time and those who are unemployed. PropTrack economist Anne Flaherty said she was surprised by the degree of rent growth since 2020. 'What really jumps out is the magnitude of the increases we're seeing and how much of people's incomes are being spent just on the cost of rent,' she said. Ms Flaherty said the rental crisis came down to the central issue of low housing supply and high demand for rental properties. 'There's a whole multitude of factors for why demand for rental properties has increased,' she said. 'Obviously population growth is a massive factor. 'But another factor is that it's taking longer and longer to save a deposit to buy your first home, which means people are being trapped in the rental market longer.' MORE: Tragic side of Aus housing crisis exposed Perth experienced the highest annual rent growth since 2020, with renters forking out an extra $16,640 a year. REIWA President Suzanne Brown said the major imbalance between supply and demand in WA saw the vacancy rate fall to record lows and put 'strong upward pressure on prices.' 'This has been very challenging for tenants,' Ms Brown said. 'We have seen some self-moderation of demand as tenants seek to cope with rising prices. 'This includes an increase in tenant household sizes to share the cost burden of renting, tenants electing to buy where possible and people simply choosing to stay in the family home longer or moving back in with family to avoid the rental market.' Mr Brown said that even though the WA rental market was improving, state and federal policymakers 'could not afford to be complacent' when it comes to rental reform. MORE: Suprise reaction to divisive rental act Greater Sydney and Brisbane experienced the second highest growth for capital cities, with rents increasing by $13,000 a year since 2020. Meanwhile, rents in Melbourne grew by $8,580 a year, almost half that of those in Perth. Ms Flaherty attributes this imbalance to Melbourne's higher housing supply and density pre-Covid, which allowed Victoria's capital to accommodate for post-pandemic population growth. 'This is incredible evidence on the impact that higher supply has,' she said. 'One of the reasons why rent growth and home price growth has been slower is because Greater Melbourne has been relatively better than the other capitals at building new homes.' Ms Flaherty said it would be some wait before rent figures started to slow around the country. 'Our expectation is that it's going to fall short in the coming years in most markets,' she said. 'We don't think that the pace of rent growth we saw over 2022-2023 is going to be repeated, however it's very unlikely we're going to see rents move backwards as a whole. 'Having said that, we are seeing differences in different markets.' ANNUAL RISE IN MEDIAN ADVERTISED RENTS (JUNE 2020-JUNE 2025) Australia $10,920 Combined capital markets $11,180 Combined regional markets $10,140 Greater Perth $16,640 Regional WA $15,600 Regional QLD $13,520 Greater Brisbane $13,000 Greater Sydney $13,000 Greater Darwin $12,480 Greater Adelaide $11,700 Regional NSW $9,880 Greater Melbourne $8,580 Regional SA $8,320 Regional VIC $7,280 Greater Hobart $6,500 Regional TAS $6,240 Greater Canberra $5,720 Regional NT $3,276 Source: PropTrack. MORE: Homebuyers hit with massive fee rise
